Stunning collapse of House of Assad in Syria underscores volatile landscape awaiting Trump

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WASHINGTON — The stunning and surprising collapse of the House of Assad in Syria underscores the volatile and fragile landscape awaiting Donald Trump as he prepares to retake power.

Brewing tensions, war zones, and a new cast of global actors all make for a complicated brew of foreign policy issues Donald Trump will be forced to navigate beginning on day one.

Striving to fulfill his campaign promise to “Make America Great Again,” the 47th president of the United States will need to bend an unforgiving geopolitical ecosystem to his will if he is to achieve his goal.

Success depends on a deft hand, navigated by a deep understanding of the motivations undergirding the international actors staring back at him.

The road is fraught with peril and the landmines that await could severely undermine Trump’s ambitions amid the slightest miscalculation.

Undoubtedly the challenges are many, but here are perhaps the most glaring vying for his immediate attention.

Gaza

The war in Gaza continues to wage uncontrollably. The Biden administration has been unable to quell the ongoing strife precipitated by Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023 attack that saw scores killed and hundreds taken hostage.

To date, more than half of the hostages have been killed, yet more than 100 remain in captivity. The region has grown more volatile since Trump left office and he returns with many of Israel’s neighbours more, not less, hostile than when he left.

In fact, Saudi Arabia, a close and trusted partner during Trump’s first term, has effectively ended any efforts at normalizing relations with Israel in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Moreover, the recent collapse of the Assad dynasty leaves a gaping hole in a country teetering on the brink of failure.

Already, the president-elect has signalled intentions to forgo engagement in Syria’s rebuilding efforts, but doing so could offer an opportunity for America’s enemies, notably Iran and ISIS, to re-shape a government hostile to the West.

Ukraine

There is no other foreign conflict the president-elect has weighed in more heavily on than the ongoing war in Ukraine. Throughout the presidential campaign, Trump boasted of being able to end the war even before taking office.

Now, with only weeks before his swearing-in, there is still no sign of Putin or Zelensky laying down their weapons. Trump has proposed Ukraine accept permanent annexation of some territories as well as forgo any ambitions of joining NATO.

No doubt, President Joe Biden’s decision giving Ukraine the green light to deploy U.S.-provided weapons deep into Russian territory will certainly complicate Trump’s hope for a rapid settlement.

Moreover, the Biden administration’s aggressive effort to draw down the remaining US$8 billion in military aid appropriated by Congress, combined with the recent US$20-billlion loan, to the embattled nation backed by seized Russian assets gives President Zelensky greater incentive to fight rather than surrender. This 11th-hour windfall, along with Russia’s most recent setback in Syria, could force the president-elect to renege on a signature campaign promise.

Asia-Pacific

Along with the U.S.’s biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, Trump is also gearing up for a trade war with the second largest global economy, China. The fraught tensions come as the two nations have had frosty relations going back to Trump’s first term in office. Trump still blames China for the spread of COVID-19.

The virus decimated the United States under Trump’s first presidency, killing more than one million Americans. The president-elect has railed against China in racist and demeaning language and has even threatened deportations of Chinese-Americans since his re-election.

However, beyond navigating the U.S.-China divide, it remains to be seen if Trump will continue to foster regional cooperation with America’s allies including South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. Japan has signalled a willingness to cooperate with the trilateral group of Australia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom (AUKUS), however it is unclear how far the Trump administration is prepared to go in fostering the trilateral.

Perhaps equally questionable is Trump’s level of commitment to the defence of Taiwan in the face of a bellicose China. The Biden administration recently appropriated more than US$300 million in military aid to Taiwan. Still, in the ‘America First’ era, it seems highly unlikely the Trump administration will respond to Beijing or North Korea’s continued aggression over the next four years.

Latin America

Trump’s contempt and ire for his own backyard is palpable. His complete disdain for Latin America was on display throughout much of his first term in office. The next four years will be no different. The threat of mass deportations is very real as evidenced by the return of trusted advisors including Stephen Miller and Tom Homan, who are already telegraphing the unforgiving nature of what is to come.

The Trump transition team’s plans to deport migrants to third-party nations including the Bahamas and other South American nations—without their support—is forecasting the brutal fights forthcoming.

Already, Mexico is in the crosshairs with its new leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, frantically trying to find ways to de-escalate a brewing trade war. Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro is also hoping for a U.S. reset after the first Trump administration refused to recognize his sham election win over Juan Guido, which led to brutal sanctions on the oil-rich nation.

The Trump administration is expected to renew its call to end all aid to Golden Triangle countries to incentivize its leaders from allowing its citizens to make the dangerous trek to America. Not stopping there, throughout the presidential campaign, Trump continuously threatened illicit drug-producing nations and cartels with military intervention.

Now, with unchecked power and all levers of government authority at his disposal, there is nothing stopping the 47th president from following through on this very real and very ominous threat.

Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.