Sask. Party, NDP entering tight race in fall election, new poll says

EXCLUSIVE: Sask Party, NDP neck and neck: poll WATCH: An exclusive poll from Insightrix, commissioned by CTV, shows the Sask Party and NDP are neck and neck heading into the election.

Based on exclusive new polling data collected by CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the majority of Saskatchewan residents say they’re ready for change, but most don’t see that change happening in 2024.

Saskatchewan’s provincial election must be held on or before Oct. 28. The election has yet to be officially called, but as campaign signs begin to appear across the province, CTV News has partnered with research firm Insightrix to survey how Saskatchewan residents are feeling just ahead of election season.

As of September, 49 per cent of decided voters say they'll support the Saskatchewan NDP while 48 per cent of decided voters say they’ll support the incumbent Saskatchewan Party. Four per cent say they’ll support a different party. Decided voters are neck and neck, reflecting previous polling data Insightrix released in July.

Based on Insightrix data from the last year, the gap between the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP has tightened since September 2023.

"Heading into this election, it's going to be different than the last few elections before it, where there was a large gap in terms of decided voter intent, given that it is really tied and we’ve seen it hold this way since April of this year," said Lang McGilp, research director with Insightrix. "That suggests to me that opinions are fairly sort of set in amongst those who've made their choice."

On the other hand, 33 per cent of voters surveyed are undecided. McGilp said that means there’s a large number of voters that all parties will look to sway during the course of the campaign.

"Who are the people who are uncertain who they're going to vote for, and among those people who are likely to get out and actually vote, rather than just stay on the sidelines," McGilp said. "Typically we see the undecided voter hanging around kind of the mid 20s, high 20 per cent range, it's actually bubbled up to the low 30s at 33 per cent in our most recent poll."

McGilp added the uptick in undecideds shows those voters are scrutinizing the decision they have to make when it comes time to cast a ballot.

“This is where we're going to see potentially more engagement once the election is formally on, to be listening to what both parties have to say,” McGilp said.

When asked "do you believe it is time for a change in the provincial government," 55 per cent of those surveyed said yes. A quarter of all voters said no, while another 22 per cent said they weren’t sure.

"I think it does show that the Sask. Party is a little bit vulnerable to know that more than half of Saskatchewan residents feel it's time for a change," McGilp said. "The other interesting piece about it is we have half of undecided voters feeling that way, and the largest proportion of people in any age group and in any region of the province also says it's time for a change."

Despite a potential feeling for change, 50 per cent of those surveyed said they believe the Saskatchewan Party will still ultimately win, while just 17 per cent said they felt the NDP could form government.

“I think there's a couple of ways you can look at that. The first is that there's a feeling that the incumbent has enough inertia that even though things might be slowing down in terms of support, they have enough to carry themselves over the line this go around,” McGilp said. “So I think that that's important for both parties to consider.”

“If you’re the Sask. Party, you want to keep pressing that forward, that yes, we are we continue to be the right choice for you,” McGilp said. “Whereas I think the NDP might have a little more of an uphill battle to tell people, no, we might actually have a chance here.”

The NDP continues to hold momentum in Regina and Saskatoon, polling at 62 per cent in Regina and 66 per cent in Saskatoon. The opposite is true in areas beyond the province’s two largest cities, with northern areas showing 63 per cent Saskatchewan Party support while the south is polling at 61 per cent.

"This is probably where we've seen a bigger change compared to the previous elections, where, you know, those in the larger cities of Regina and Saskatoon, support for the Sask. Party has dropped off a fair amount," McGilp said. "And we actually now have more of a divide going on between those two cities and the remainder of the province."

"So I think that's going to play a factor in what we see the composition will become in this upcoming election," McGilp added.

By demographic, 52 per cent of male voters polled say they’ll vote Saskatchewan Party, while 52 per cent of female voters polled say they plan to back the NDP.

Younger voters are more skewed towards the New Democrats, with 57 per cent of voters between 18 and 34 saying they’ll vote orange this fall. The split is close to even in 35 to 54, while the Saskatchewan Party has a slight edge in the 55 plus demographic, a group that also has the highest level of third-party support at five per cent.

The sample size involved 806 adult residents, surveyed online through the Insightrix SaskWatch Research panel, a reflection of the province’s general population through age, gender and region. The research was conducted between Sept. 10 and Sept. 12, with an estimated margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll was conducted in partnership between CTV News and Insightrix Research.