Would a Trump victory cause Canada to spend more on defence and abandon Ukraine?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a news conference at the NATO Summit on July 11, 2024 in Washington (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

As we move closer to the U.S. election, CTVNews.ca will be examining the relationship between Canada and the U.S. in a series of features.

Canada has long faced criticism from the U.S. and other allies for failing to meet NATO's defence spending target, which directs members of the security alliance to contribute at least two per cent of their GDP to defence.

After a torrent of criticism from its NATO allies, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did say this week that Canada would reach that benchmark – but it won't happen until 2032 and he offered few details as to the timeline.

And while Republicans and Democrats alike have long complained about Canada's sluggish military spending, experts say Canada is more likely to suffer consequences under a second Trump presidency, which could also end U.S. support for Ukraine.

Aaron Ettinger is an associate professor of political science at Carleton University who specializes in U.S. foreign policy. He says while American presidents have complained about Canada's defence spending since the end of the Second World War, Canadian leaders have long tried to "stickhandle" around the criticisms.

"Biden might be more forgiving as long as Canada continues to contribute to multilateral operations in eastern Europe, including supplying war materiel to Ukraine," Ettinger told CTVNews.ca.

"Trump would return to his pattern of upbraiding Canada for not spending enough on defence, which would put a Canadian prime minister in a difficult position: spending more on defence comes with no political benefits in Canada and whatever Canada spends won't be enough for Trump."

Whether Trudeau's promise to reach the two per cent benchmark in eight years will change the U.S.'s view of Canada – in Biden's eyes, or Trump's if he were to win the election in November – is still up in the air.

Canada spent an estimated 1.38 per cent of its GDP on defence in 2023, according to NATO data, putting it in 25th place out of 30 members.

Where Trump stands

During a February 2024 rally, former U.S. president Donald Trump recounted telling a NATO leader that he would let Russia have its way with members that don't reach the military alliance's minimum defence spending target.

"No, I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want," Trump told cheering supporters. "You got to pay. You got to pay your bills."

Trump has reportedly considered withdrawing the U.S. from NATO and has also purportedly floated the idea of creating a two-tiered military alliance, where countries that fail to meet the spending target are not fully protected.

"If you're going to be part of an alliance, contribute to the alliance, be part of the alliance," Trump national security advisor and retired lieutenant- general Keith Kellogg told Reuters in February. "If President Trump is re-elected, once the election is done, I would give everyone what we call a warning order."

Former Trump national security adviser John Bolton previously said Trump "saw absolutely no point to NATO" and "would try to get out" if re-elected. Trump reportedly even considered doing so while president in 2018.

"The great fear is that Trump would use allied free-riding as a pretext to withdraw from major multilateral security initiatives," Ettinger told CTVNews.ca. "This includes NATO, but it could also mean bilateral security arrangements with Canada."

According to Ettinger, a Trump victory could also affect western support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

"If Trump is elected, there's a good chance that the U.S. would stop sending money to Ukraine. If that happens, every other country would likely follow suit," Ettinger said. "This is exactly what happened in Afghanistan: the U.S. withdrew and every other western country that was part of NATO operations followed. We saw how that turned out."

Where Biden stands

The message on Canada's defence spending has been similar – but softer – from U.S. President Joe Biden's team.

"Over the last 10 years, we've moved from three countries meeting that target to 18, with more to come, and those that aren't meeting it right now have a plan to get there, except for Canada," Julianne Smith, the current U.S. ambassador to NATO, told CTV Question Period earlier this year.

Ettinger also expects western support for Ukraine to continue under Biden.

"Should Biden be elected, the U.S. support program would likely continue on its current slowly escalating course," he said.

Canada's defence spending

While only 11 countries hit the NATO defence spending target in 2023 – led by Poland, the U.S. and Greece – more than 20 are expected to fulfil the goal this year, excluding Canada.

While the Liberal government did not provide details as to how it would reach the two per cent mark by 2032 aside from investments in new defence capabilities, including submarines, it did announce billions in new military spending that will see Canada reach 1.76 per cent by 2029.

In April 2023, the Washington Post reported on a leaked Pentagon document that alleged Trudeau privately told NATO officials that Canada will never meet the two per cent target.

"We recognize there's more to do and we will be there to do it," Trudeau said after a bipartisan group of U.S. senators recently urged him to increase defence spending.

As he committed Canada to reaching two per cent by 2032, Trudeau also defended Canada's defence contributions and seemed to take a swipe at the benchmark set by NATO.

"We continually step up and punch above our weight, something that isn't always reflected in the crass mathematical calculation that certain people turn to very quickly," Trudeau said at the annual NATO summit in Washington on Thursday. "Which is why we've always questioned the two per cent as the be-all, end-all of evaluating contributions to NATO."